The US analyst, Daniel Serwer, reacted to the declaration of the Kosovo President, Hashim Thaci, and said that a border correction would be a dangerous idea which could cause destabilization in the Balkans.
Serwer told the Voice of America that this move is actually a territory exchange. He added that Thaci wouldn’t give such an idea without agreeing with Vucic first, and without the West accepting it as a solution.
However, Serwer says that a territorial exchange between Kosovo and Serbia could destabilize the entire Balkans.
“It would have a negative impact on Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina because the Serbian Republic in Bosnia would want to correct its borders as well and join Serbia. There are Russian ambitions to control Southern Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia; Transnistria in Moldavia, Crimea and Donbass in Ukraine”, he says.
For Serwer, they are wrong if they think that they can avoid opening a Pandora Box by calling it a “correction”.
Brussels and Washington have been against territory exchanges in the past. They have underlined that countries cannot be formed based on their ethnic affiliations but on the principles of respecting minorities. Serwer, however, admits that this stance might have changed by now.
He adds that one of the factors forcing the West to change their stance could be related to the increased populism in both sides of the Atlantic, which is filled with an ethnic-nationalist sentiment.
However, such discussions could create huge problems, according to Serwer. “The president of Bosnia’s Serbian Republic, Milorad Dodik, said today that if Kosovo takes its place in the UN, the Serbian Republic of Bosnia will demand the same thing.”
However, the US analyst doubts that Kosovo could join the UN even if there is a territory exchange. China and Russia could stop it from happening.
“For Russia, that’s enough to destabilize the Balkans and stop Bosnia and Macedonia from joining NATO”, he said.
Serwer adds that these negotiations could have a negative impact in Macedonia, where citizens could feel threatened and vote against the new agreement with Greece.
The US analyst says that forces like the Self-Determination Movement could bring new ideas of having Kosovo join Albania, and they may even demand a referendum about this. This would be difficult for Albanian politicians.
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