This year, the government will not be able to pride itself with the
highest economic growth in Europe. According to the World Bank
predictions, Albania has moved down in the list, left behind by
Macedonia and Kosovo.
The news was reported by the Shqip Newspaper. In almost every press conference, pro-government journalists ask the economists about Albania’s economic growth in comparison with the neighbors.
During 2009, the answer was always that Albania had the biggest economic growth in the continent. But yesterday, this question met an unexpected answer.
“We have presented the economic predictions on the regular economic report”, declared the World Bank economist, Ron Hood, in yesterdays press conference.
“We have predicted a 2% economic growth for 2012. The average for the six countries of the region was 2.1%, and Albania is at the average level. Bosnia is ranked last and Macedonia first. Even Kosovo was on the top of the list, but they come from a lower base”, Hood declared.
The economic growth in Albania was over 6% during 2000-2008, fell to 2.5 to 3.5% for the two years after that, and for 2011 is expected to be even lower.
The neighboring countries cut their expenses during 2009 and were prepared for the economic storm, which also caused economic stagnation for that year. Albania took debts and increased the economy during 2009, but now it has to pay the debts, which means that there will be a lower economic growth than the neighbors.
“The margin of error is big in these predictions, because the world is currently unclear and unsafe. The situation is variable even in developed countries. I don’t remember any other period when the predictions have changed every five minutes”, Hood declared.
“To be sincere, I must also say that there are risks even for a negative tendency”, he added.
Borko Handjinski, another WB economist, declared that Albania’s economic growth for this year depends on what will happen in the Eurozone, from where Albania receives remittances, direct foreign investments and private loans.
“The nominal growth is realist, near our prediction. But this growth is based on the suggestion that the EU economy will keep growing. If the economic growth in the Eurozone will happen, Albania’s prediction is achievable. If not, it is not realist”, Handjinski declared.
WB experts did not give a specific number for the loan that could be taken, but declared that the government has agreed to take everything that has been offered. According to the permanent WB representative in Tirana, Kseniya Lvovsky, the help could be bigger than 100 million USD.
“I have heard from the media that the loan will be bigger than 100 million USD”, she declared, after the repeated questions of the journalists.
“I can say that this loan could be even bigger”, she added.
The 100 million USD debt is sufficient for causing a direct economic growth of 0.8%, while the final effect could be bigger after the government will use this money in the economy.
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