Euro crisis scenarios
29/11/2011 00:00
Linda Rama: Between Family, Work and Albania’s Future 18/08 14:30
The panic inseminated by the Eurozone crisis spurred another debate
among experts: how far can this situation go. Andis harasani and Sybi
Hida say that despite to what is going on, the scenario for abandoning
the Euro seems unfounded.
“If you see Euro’s fluctuations towards other currencies, you’ll notice a normal trend. But if you see the European stocks, they are operating same as in the ‘70s. This is a common history and any panic for abandoning Euro is unfounded”, Harasani declared.
Sybi Hida says that Euro is a currency managed by the most powerful countries in Europe, and it would be against their interest to devaluate or lose it.
However, they think that in a near future, Euro might lose terrain to the Dollar, but also to ALL.
“Euro will continue to devaluate, and the most optimistic developments are for 1.2 against the US dollar”, Harasani declared.
The Albanian economy is also being affected by these developments. The first effect is at the individuals, which is seen bilateral.
“The Albanians who have their savings in EUR could be damaged, but the other phenomenon for the Albanians is positive, for the ones who have debts in Euros, because they will need less ALL to pay it”, Hida declared.
However, experts are unanimous when they say that in these conditions, when the market is emotive, the best advice for the citizens is to not hurry and exchange their savings.
“It has been historically and theoretically proved that small investors are the only ones who lose by the currency exchanges. Studies show that in an 18 months period, the investors who make currency exchange moves are always on the loss”, Harasani declared.
Besides the individuals, the government will also benefit from the weakening of Euro.
“This might help the public finances, because our foreign debt would be cheaper and the service towards it could be cheaper. We would need less money to buy Euro and return the debt”, Hida explains.
The European currency is facing its most difficult days since its creation. The media offers many versions for the solution of the Eurozone crisis, such as a common devaluation of Euro and the separation of the Eurozone in two blocks. The strongest scenario is that of abandoning the currency and return to the original national currencies.
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