Crisis that comes from oil
14/03/2012 00:00
Linda Rama: Between Family, Work and Albania’s Future 18/08 14:30
Since the beginning of the year, the oil prices in the world markets
have increased with 15%. The increase in the internal market was higher,
since the stock market effect has been also influenced by the
government tax increase.
The gas stations are reaching the price of 200 ALL per liter, placing the world economy in front of another test. Although it is the only state in the country that produces oil, Albania still imports fuels.
The oil imports last year reached 960 million USD, 9% of the GDP. Although the export is same as imports, in value they were 2.3 times fewer, because Albania sells oil with a law price and buys it dear from abroad.
The annual deficit of oil fluctuates from 500 to 540 million USD, almost 5% of the GDP. This means that for every increase of 10%, the additional cost paid by the Albanian economy is 0.5% of the GDP.
The deterioration of the commercial balance is not the only hit that the oil gives to the economy. The increased oil price also affects the business cost. While the market demand has reduced, due to the crisis, the cost increase could shrink the production and new investments even more.
The economists have studied the effects of the oil price in the economy. Most of them have come to the conclusion that an 10% oil price increase reduces the economic growth with 0.2%, depending on the economic structure. Beyond the exact number, it is sure that the high oil prices could shrink the economic growth even more, which is already in its lowest levels.
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